Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
