A mere eight weeks ago that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
